Modeling of the fuel and energy balance of Kazakhstan (KZLEAP) for the Analysis of Decarbonization Scenarios and Carbon Pricing Instruments

Project manager: Zhakiyev Nurkat Kuandykovich, PhD, Director of the Department of Science and Innovations, AITU

Funding source: GF MSHE OF RK

Project objective: Development of a modeling tool for the fuel and energy balance of Kazakhstan (LEAP-KZ), the formation of an action plan for decision-making on a low-carbon transition and the analysis of carbon pricing instruments with a holistic cross-sectoral vision of the development of a green economy and infrastructure, bringing Kazakhstan to the leading region in carbon neutrality.

Implementation years: 2024–2026

Amount of funding: 97,349,776 tenge

Partners:

Project objectives:

Analysis of the fuel and energy balance;
Development of the LEAP-KZ model;
Modeling of development scenarios, quantitative and qualitative analytics.

Project implementation matrix:

Expected results:

Tasks (WP- work packages)	Expected results
WP1. Analysis of fuel and energy balance.	Data analytics, building forecast models, correlation analysis, comparison of indicators with other countries, dependency graphs, repository architecture. Collected data (datasets in monthly and seasonal resolution) included in the fuel and energy balance and collection of emission data. Data processing in the software environment SQL, Python, MS Excel, Wolfram Mathematica.
WP2. Development of the KZLEAP model.	Simulation and modeling of various scenarios Development and creation of an open, transparent and integrated modeling platform for assessing low-carbon transition paths for the energy system of Kazakhstan in LEAP. Training of personnel in the field of LEAP modeling and formation of human capital of experts. Improving the skills of researchers in improving the KZLEAP model (participation in seminars, presentation at conferences, improvement of scientific methods, training of master’s students). Quantitative study of medium-term and long-term decarbonization scenarios. Improving the skills of government employees in the use of the KZLEAP model and their involvement in scientific research.
WP 3: Modeling of development scenarios, quantitative and qualitative analytics.	Building scenario analyses using the LEAP model for energy planning and climate change mitigation assessment. Investigating the potential of Central Asia in developing carbon pricing instruments to accelerate regional decarbonization and realize the benefits of sustainable energy cooperation in the region.
– for the entire period of the project implementation, at least 2 (two) articles or reviews in peer-reviewed scientific publications indexed in SCIE Web of Science Q1-Q3 by impact factor or with a CiteScore percentile in Scopus of at least 65 (sixty-five); as well as at least 1 (one) article in a peer-reviewed foreign or domestic publication recommended by the Committee on the Review of Scientific Research in the Field of Scientific Research.