AP19579354 “Modeling and digitalization of the electric power system of Kazakhstan to form new market models and tariff policies that ensure a high share of renewable energy”

Project manager: Director of the Department of Science and Innovation at Astana IT University, PhD, Zhakiyev Nurkhat Kuandykovich

Competition name: GF YOUNG SCIENTISTS MSHE RK

Partners: JSC “KOREM”, JSC “KEGOK”, LLP “RFC RES”, JSC “Zhasyl Damu”, JSC “Institute of Economic Research”

Years of implementation: 2023-2025

Amount of funding: 74,171,865.50 tenge

Integration of renewable energy sources into energy systems has become possible due to the development of electric grid infrastructure, demand management measures (installation of multi-tariff meters and flexible electricity prices), development of energy storage technologies, as well as industry cooperation and flexible electricity generation at traditional power plants. At the same time, success in the development of renewable energy sources and the rapid increase in its share in the energy balance were associated with large-scale government support provided to new technologies in developed countries. Purchasing green electricity at higher prices, subsidies to companies switching to the use of new technologies significantly helped the industry in the early stages of development.

study and analysis of ways to form an effective tariff policy and new market mechanisms in the electric power industry of Kazakhstan while increasing the share of renewable energy sources (RES) and digitalization of the sector by comparing different development scenarios; development of software or web platform for efficient operation of electricity sales operator

A model of the energy system of the Republic of Kazakhstan in PYPSA has been developed.
Integration of different renewable energy sources.
A tool for modeling the energy system for long-term planning of the energy system and development of renewable energy sources. The novelty of the study lies in the testing and integration of new systemic market mechanisms for the development of the electricity market with modern types of renewable energy sources and energy storage devices using computer scenario modeling tools.
A scenario analysis was carried out for the electricity market with and without the use of renewable energy sources. An algorithm with a detailed description was developed. The model was validated using the “Business as Usual” scenarios for 2020 and the results were compared with official reports. Three investment scenarios were studied: a) renewable energy sources with a share of 30%, b) a scenario of abandoning coal, c) a share of 30% of renewable energy sources with investment in power transmission lines, after which an economically optimal solution for 2040 was determined.
Testing of the web platform for the Kazakhstan EE market was conducted. A comprehensive approach to forecasting solar energy production using ML methods was presented.